Back on March 12, the Baltimore Ravens signed Derrick Henry to a two-year contract worth $16 million, which, with incentives, could be worth up to $20 million. On page four of the eight-page deal, some of those earned dollar figures are outlined.
obtained a copy of Henry’s deal Sunday as the Baltimore Ravens throttled the Denver Broncos. Here’s what they look like:
Henry can earn $500,000 if he rushes for more than 1,200 yards.Henry can earn $500,000 if he rushes for more than 1,500 yards.Henry can earn $500,000 if he has 13 or more total touchdowns.Henry can earn $500,000 if he has 15 or more total touchdowns.Henry can earn $500,000 if he rushes for more than 1,000 yards and the Ravens win the Super Bowl, and he happens to be on the roster at the time.
Sometimes, earnable incentives are part of the attraction for players signing somewhere in free agency, though I don’t think this was necessarily the case for Henry when he signed with Baltimore. For example, in 2023, only one running back rushed for more than 1,200 yards and that was Christian McCaffrey. Only three running backs broke the 15 total touchdown threshold. Only four broke the 13-or-more touchdown threshold. A lot of these incentive benchmarks were just beyond the expectations of Henry the year prior, when, apparently, most of the NFL believed the mammoth running back had finally seen the fuel light come on indicating the end of his dominance.
By Sunday afternoon, Henry was half a million dollars richer by hitting the 13-touchdown threshold. He is 148 yards away from 1,200 yards and 448 yards away from 1,500 yards. Henry is just one good game away from 15 touchdowns and, if he keeps playing this way, is on pace to collect the Super Bowl bonus as well.
The Ravens have made their franchise by winning in the margins, but the fact that the rest of the league allowed Henry to go to Baltimore without much financial pushback is stunning in hindsight. Henry has scored in every Ravens game this season. Every season since 2018 has featured 10 or more Henry touchdowns. All but one of those seasons featured a complete, or nearly complete season from Henry. Had this been a down year for quarterbacking, Henry could have had a legitimate case at the MVP award given how he’s elevated a Ravens power-running scheme that basically started over at the offensive line position this spring.
Cowboys owner Jerry Jones was famous for saying that the Dallas Cowboys couldn’t afford him—a quick look at his deal shows that to be incorrect, though given what he paid for Ezekiel Elliott, we can see what kind of pocket change he was willing to shill out—but he isn’t the only one who should wear this decision. The Cincinnati Bengals were a good running game away from legitimate contention this year. The New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders are both among the lowest rushing efficiency teams in the NFL and could have had Henry for about half the price of the high-profile running backs they let go to free agency (Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley). The Kansas City Chiefs, while doing just fine, are conference rivals sure to have to deal with Henry in the postseason and are shuffling carries between a cadre of running backs who could generously be described as the “guys who are available as last-minute replacements for your 4–5 fantasy team All-Stars.” The Tennessee Titans paid just a little bit less for Tony Pollard.
A failure to get into the Henry sweepstakes indicates oversights on one or two fronts by NFL teams. The first, like the Cowboys, is a simple unwillingness to spend at a premium rate for veteran free agents at seemingly expendable positions. The second is a lack of willingness on behalf of pro scouting departments to do the research on Henry as a player. While the running back position becomes perilous for players over 30 years old, Henry maintains a rigorous offseason workout program, which we once joined virtually during an offseason. He is a size and speed outlier, and while we can attempt to be an actuary when it comes to running backs taking only a certain amount of hits and a certain volume of carries, Henry is the size of a military-grade humvee. Many of the hits we’ve calculated him taking may very well have been incidental contact or a player simply bouncing off his arms like a wrestling heel diving into the ring.
When Henry got the ball inside the red zone with the Ravens up by 14 on Sunday, one of his would-be tacklers fell not because of a stiff arm, but in anticipation of a stiff arm. Earlier in the game, on his first touchdown, he rammed against the backside of his 300-pound offensive lineman and was able to reset his feet and hit a high enough speed to drag another Bronco into the end zone.
It’s not surprising given that this is basically what Henry has looked like his entire career. What should surprise us is that no one was willing to bet a few million dollars on the fact that he could do it again, especially after being plucked out of the drain-circling roster in Tennessee.
