In a season where no teams are on pace to finish with 100 wins, the playoff picture feels quite muddled considering there are just 11 days left in the regular season.
That's especially true in the American League, as none of the three division titles have been clinched yet and the three wild-card spots are still up for grabs. We've witnessed Aaron Judge steer the New York Yankees to the top of the AL East once again, the Seattle Mariners fumble away a big lead to their AL West bullies in the Houston Astros, and the Cleveland Guardians pull away in the AL Central under the leadership of new manager Stephen Vogt.
There will be a new team representing the American League in the World Series this year, as the defending champion Texas Rangers are all but officially eliminated from playoff contention. So, what could prevent each contender from emerging from the AL bracket? Let's dive into each contender's biggest weakness.
New York Yankees
Current playoff spot: AL East leader
Biggest weakness: Bullpen
The Yankees' high-leverage bullpen arms have been a big concern all season. Former closer Clay Holmes was demoted from his ninth-inning role earlier this month and has blown a league-high 11 saves—including two since his transition to a setup role.
Luke Weaver, Tommy Kahnle, Ian Hamilton and Marcus Stroman have combined for five saves since Holmes's demotion, but the Yankees don't really have a go-to reliever to set the table for whoever gets the ninth inning. And they certainly can't trust Holmes at this point.
Cleveland Guardians
Current playoff spot: AL Central leader
Biggest weakness: Starting rotation
The Guardians arguably boast the best bullpen in all of baseball thanks to another dominant season from All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase, but the guys trying to get the game to the arm barn leave much to be desired. Cleveland's rotation ranks 24th in ERA (4.49) and 23rd in WHIP (1.32) this season, having scuffled amid injuries, poor performances, or both, from Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen and Carlos Carrasco.
Tanner Bibee should start the first game of a playoff series, but after that? Veterans Matthew Boyd and Alex Cobb, who last pitched on Sept. 1 and is still dealing with a right hand blister, have combined for 10 starts for Cleveland and yet are probably the best options.
Houston Astros
Current playoff spot: AL West leader
Biggest weakness: The Justin Verlander situation
Remember in May when everyone thought the Astros' dynasty was over? Houston is playing its best baseball at the right time, much to the chagrin of the rival Mariners.
The Astros are still a team nobody wants to face in the playoffs and could easily make their eighth straight ALCS appearance this fall. But a big question lingering in Houston is around three-time Cy Young winner Justin Verlander. Is there a spot for him in the playoff rotation?
Framber Valdez should start the opening game of any playoff series, and Hunter Brown has been fantastic since the All-Star break (2.33 ERA). The Astros also have won all eight games Yusei Kikuchi has pitched since he was acquired from Toronto at the trade deadline. Meanwhile, Verlander owns a 5.20 ERA in 15 starts this season and hasn't posted a single quality start since May.
Does first-year Astros manager Joe Espada roll with the hot hands in his rotation? Or does he give the ball to a future Hall of Famer and two-time World Series champion who consistently shows up in the spotlight?
Baltimore Orioles
Current playoff spot: First AL wild card
Biggest weakness: Slumping offense
An old baseball adage rings true for Baltimore: It's not who you play, it's when you play them. And right now, anyone playing the Orioles is having a pretty good time.
The O's have lost seven of their last 10 games and have failed to score more than three runs in all seven losses. Over the last 30 days, Baltimore ranks 29th in batting average (.204) and 28th in OPS (.624). The club's young, exciting core has struggled of late, as Adley Rutschman owns a .190/.289/.250 slash line over the last month and Jackson Holliday hasn't exactly secured himself a spot on the playoff roster.
Kansas City Royals
Current playoff spot: Second AL wild card
Biggest weakness: Bullpen
Bobby Witt Jr. is a problem. And he'll be a problem for whoever the Royals face in the wild-card round. But the bullpen is a problem for those employed at 1 Royal Way in Kansas City.
The Royals' relievers rank 23rd in ERA (4.42) and 25th in WHIP (1.38) this season. Trade-deadline acquisition Lucas Erceg has been mostly steady since being promoted to the ninth-inning role, converting eight of 10 save opportunities, but former closer James McArthur is the latest reliever to hit the injured list, following veterans Hunter Harvey, Will Smith and Chris Stratton. Manager Matt Quatraro is running out of reliable options to work with in the late innings.
Minnesota Twins
Current playoff spot: Tied for third AL wild card
Biggest weakness: Starting pitching
The Twins' ownership followed up its most successful season in two decades last year by significantly slashing payroll—and now the club is paying for it.
There's really no trustworthy option in the rotation behind ace Pablo Lopez. Joe Ryan is out for the season, Bailey Ober has been inconsistent after a fantastic start to the year, and the Twins' trio of youngsters—David Festa, Simeon Woods Richardson and Zebby Matthews—are so hot and cold it's tough to predict which one they'll call upon for a Game 3 start.
The bullpen hasn't been good, either, over Minnesota's current 10–19 slump since Aug. 18. Add that to lingering injuries for stars Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, and a lot has to go right for the Twins to even match last year's playoff success.
Detroit Tigers
Current playoff spot: Tied for third AL wild card
Biggest weakness: Inexperience
To even be on this list in late September is quite the accomplishment for Detroit, which hasn't made the playoffs since 2014 or finished a season over .500 since '16. The Tigers find themselves in the mix after winning the most games (33) in the American League since the All-Star break.
Detroit, however, is a young team—the third-youngest roster in MLB. Just one of their nine regular starting hitters has more than two years of MLB service time, and Matt Vierling represents the most playoff experience among Tigers batters with 15 postseason plate appearances for Philadelphia in 2022.
The Tigers are likely still a year away. But if they surpass the Twins or Royals, the pitching staff—namely, AL Cy Young front-runner Tarik Skubal—could make some noise in the postseason.
Seattle Mariners
Current playoff spot: 2.5 GB of third AL wild card
Biggest weakness: Offense
The Mariners built a World Series-caliber rotation, as Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert are about as good as it gets for a trio of starters. Unfortunately, their offense isn’t of the same pedigree.
Entering Thursday's game, the Mariners rank dead last in baseball in batting average (.221) and 25th in slugging percentage (.373). Julio Rodriguez, a preseason favorite to take home the AL MVP, is finally finding his swing in September, batting .310 with seven extra-base hits in 16 games. But will it be enough?
